Recently, Japanese officials have warned of a possible mega-earthquake that could cause serious consequences in the near future. A 7.1-magnitude earthquake off the coast of Miyazaki Prefecture, on the western edge of the Nankai Trough, shook southwestern Japan on the afternoon of August 8 (local time) with an epicenter of about 30 meters. A series of tsunami warnings were issued afterwards. By about 5:00 p.m. (local time), tsunami waves of about 50 cm high had hit the coasts of Miyazaki, Kagoshima and Kochi Prefectures.
The mega-earthquake is predicted to be the most damaging of the large earthquakes that the government has been studying prevention methods for years.
The Cabinet Office’s expert research team announced in 2012 that the Nankai Trench mega-earthquake was expected to have a magnitude of 9.1, higher than the magnitude of the 9.0 earthquake recorded in the 2011 triple disaster in Japan. The Central Disaster Prevention Council predicted that a total of 100 cities along the Pacific coast from Kanto to Kyushu (Japan) would be hit by tsunamis of 10 meters or more, and could even reach heights of 30 meters.
Initially, the death toll was estimated to be as high as 323,000 and the economic damage to be 220.3 trillion yen. However, by 2019, thanks to improvements in earthquake prevention and other factors, experts calculate that the death toll could be reduced to 231,000 – 14 times the number of people killed in the 2011 Japan quake and tsunami – and the economic damage is estimated at 213.7 trillion yen.
As of January this year, the Japanese Government Earthquake Research Committee has predicted that the possibility of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring near the Nankai Trench in the next 30 years is about 70-80%.
National disaster prevention measures have been implemented based on the damage estimate, including promoting disaster prevention measures as well as strengthening special measures for evacuation when a tsunami strikes.
Experts also emphasize the need to restore and stabilize people’s lives after a disaster occurs.
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