FACT CHECK: No expected tropical cyclone bigger than the Philippines

The potential weather disturbances that have a ‘high probability’ of developing into tropical cyclones in the next two weeks have yet to have intensities determined

Claim: According to a Facebook post, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is expecting a tropical cyclone bigger than the Philippines to develop inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) next week, or in the second week of September.

Rating: FALSE

Why we fact-checked this: The Facebook post containing the claim has 631 shares, 251 reactions, and 38 comments. It was posted by the page named “Philippine Weather Alerts” which has 17,000 followers and 4,400 likes.

The caption of the post says that there is a tropical cyclone bigger than the Philippines that is expected to develop inside PAR in the second week of September. It also claims that PAGASA is monitoring two potential tropical cyclones that are expected to become super typhoons.

The post also provided links that purportedly contain the list of areas that will be hit by the tropical cyclone and redirect to a PAGASA live update.

The facts: While PAGASA reported that potential weather disturbances may develop inside PAR or enter PAR in the next two weeks, none of these disturbances are expected to be bigger than the Philippines. Their possible tropical cyclone categories or peak intensities have yet to be determined as well.

According to PAGASA’s forecast on September 6, two low pressure areas could form within the week of September 6 and 12. One LPA might form in the northern portion of PAR, while the other might form outside PAR. Both would have a “high probability” of developing into a tropical cyclone.

In the week of September 13 to 19, the LPA that forms outside PAR could enter the region, still with a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. During the same week, a third LPA may also form near the western part of Northern Luzon, with a “low likelihood” of developing into a tropical cyclone.

PAGASA has not said in any of its forecasts that it is expecting super typhoons in the next two weeks.

Enteng (Yagi), which left PAR on September 4, is the most recent super typhoon that was monitored by PAGASA. When Enteng was inside PAR, its peak intensity was at severe tropical storm level. It became a typhoon and later a super typhoon when it was already outside PAR.

Ad links: A scan on WhereGoes, a free website that checks affiliate and redirect links, showed that both links provided in the post can be traced to an online shopping platform, contrary to the claim in the post.

A scan on VirusTotal, a free anti-malware website owned by Google, also revealed that one of the two links was flagged as malicious by two of its security vendors. Certego and Criminal IP detected potential phishing threats. Clicking on such links puts users at risk of having their sensitive information stolen. (READ: Phishing 101: How to spot and avoid phishing)