The NHC raised its forecast for the new low to develop into a tropical depression or the fifth hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) 2 p.m. local time forecast for August 10 shows a low pressure system with a broad band of showers and thunderstorms that has been strengthening since August 7 and is currently located in the central tropical Atlantic, approximately between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to gradually develop over the next few days as it moves west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph (24-32 km/h) across the central tropical Atlantic.

The NHC forecasts a tropical depression or hurricane could form early to mid-next week as the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles.

The storm’s next move will be a general west-northwestward movement across parts of the Greater Antilles, possibly including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

The NHC gives the system a 40% chance of developing over the next two days and an 80% chance over the next seven days.

If the depression strengthens into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Ernesto, the fifth storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Long-range forecast models show the system then turning north into the Atlantic before hitting Florida, but all of that is more than a week away.

“It is too early to determine the impact, if any. Stay tuned for the latest storm updates and continue to monitor reliable weather forecasts,” the National Weather Service said in its long-range forecast.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen four named storms so far, including two hurricanes. The most recent storm, Hurricane Debby, made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend on Aug. 5 as a Category 1 storm.

It then weakened to a tropical storm, dropping heavy rain as it moved east into the Atlantic, turning north and making a second landfall in South Carolina on August 7.

The number of storms is likely to increase as the season peaks from mid-August through October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its hurricane forecast this past week, predicting an extremely severe season with 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 will be hurricanes. Of these, 4-7 will become major hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.